Across all global issues, from the current war in Europe’s East to the ever-impending doom of climate change, some argue that a number of demographic challenges are the key problems in today’s world. From an aging population to declining fertility rates, the rapid growth of megacities, and the problem of overpopulation, there is no shortage of demographic issues that the world is currently facing. This article will unpack the different demographic challenges and possible solutions that some countries have proposed or undertaken themselves.
Aging Populations & Declining Fertility Rate
Aging populations are a key demographic challenge in the 21st century. This can be seen in a number of countries, including Japan. Japan is facing an aging population, and this has resulted in a number of demographic problems for the country. By the year 2050, the dependency ratio is projected to be almost 1 to 1, meaning that for every one working person, there is one dependent person (either over 65 or under 15) that requires government support. Due to the very low birth rate, this situation is not likely to improve.
This has major societal repercussions, as social security and other retirement benefits may need to be reevaluated as there won’t be enough working people to pay for the retirement benefits and increased healthcare costs of the vastly expanded elderly population. While solutions like raising the retirement age have been proposed, these are politically unpopular. Other solutions include improving child support, paid parental leave, and direct government support. However, whichever solution Japan chooses to go with, there will be tradeoffs, showing that aging populations are a key demographic challenge.
Image #1: Increasing Elderly Population
Furthermore, a declining fertility rate is another demographic challenge that many countries, including Japan, are facing. People are having fewer and fewer children today than ever before due to higher education and higher use of contraception. This means that many countries are now below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per birthing parent. This means that many countries are on track for an aging population, as the reduced number of children cannot sustainably support the now comparatively large elderly population. This all shows how an aging population and declining birth rates will have major social consequences in the 21st century.
Megacities
Megacities are a key demographic challenge in the 21st century, as they present a number of complex, dynamic, and interconnected challenges. The megacity of Shanghai is currently facing both socioeconomic and environmental problems.
Image #2: Shanghai at night
Housing overcrowding is a key problem that Shanghai is facing. Housing is often found in slum areas, leading to a low quality of life. This can, in turn, lead to cancer and other diseases increasing in the city. Shanghai has the highest cancer mortality rate in China. All of this puts immense pressure on Shanghai’s healthcare system, which is already overcrowded, and with the population continuing to increase, there does not seem to be an end in sight.
Coupled with the socioeconomic problems are the environmental problems that Shanghai is facing. Shanghai has one of the highest rates of air pollution in the world, at 60 ug/m3 on average, in comparison to the WHO's recommended 10 ug/m3. This is a problem especially prevalent in megacities due to the high rates of car usage and heavy industry in the city, further contributing to the problem of pollution in Shanghai.
Overpopulation
In addition to aging populations and the rapid growth of megacities, overpopulation in a broader sense is contributing to the world’s demographic challenges. According to Malthusian theory, the population of the world will soon outstrip the number of resources available, leading to a population crash as we won’t have enough resources to support the Earth’s growing population. As the world’s population passes eight billion, this will be another key demographic challenge to look out for.
Image #3: Malthusian Theory
Current global issues will not help increase the number of resources available to the human population. For instance, the issue of climate change could reduce the amount of land available for agricultural purposes. This is due to rising temperatures increasing the probability of droughts, which will reduce agricultural supply. Furthermore, climate change will also create more extreme weather patterns and make the weather less predictable, reducing agricultural output. The Russian War in Ukraine also highlights how dependent all countries are on each other for key resources, such as oil, and shows the limited supply of oil. It also shows that there are a very small number of countries that supply most of the world’s oil, and this will increase resource insecurity going into the next decade.
Image #4: Overpopulation
Countries such as the Western African country of Niger highlight this problem well. In Niger, the population will grow from 11.3 million in 2000 to 65.5 million in 2050. This increasing population is due to Niger’s high birth rate and fertility rates. In 2025, Niger’s fertility rate will be around 6.5 babies per birthing parent, a high number in comparison to other countries. This high fertility rate is due to the low use of contraception in Niger, in addition to some men having many wives. This combination has led Niger to have a youthful population and a rapidly growing population, which has major societal impacts. Rapid population growth may outstrip food supply, and with only 14% of Niger’s land being airable, this could lead to major societal issues for Niger. The lack of knowledge on contraception and safe sex will continue to lead to a high birth rate in Niger. This youthful population will put a strain on governmental systems, with education systems likely to struggle to cope with the population increase.
Overall, the world is facing a number of important demographic challenges, and while some solutions have been proposed, they are often deemed politically unpopular to implement, and there is no "silver bullet" to the world’s demographic challenges. At the end of the day, a combination of solutions will likely be the only way to effectively combat the world’s demographic problems.
Images Used
Image #1: https://www.geo41.com/aging-populations-igcse
Image #2: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/investing-in-shanghai-china-city-spotlight/
Image #3: https://study.com/learn/lesson/malthusian-theory-of-population-growth-summary-importance.html
Image #4: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/05/population-growth-is-a-key-driver-of-climate-breakdown-and-biodiversity-loss
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